💼 The Pontius Paradox: Do Nothing, Win Everything?

Good morning afternoon,

Markets stood trial this week—charged with overexuberance, speculative zeal, and one too many AI chip rallies.

The crowd? Rabid. The governors? Absent. And the Fed, like a modern Pontius Pilate, simply washed its hands and said, “Not our problem.” Interest rates remain where they are—nailed firmly in place, despite pleas for mercy.

Tech stocks took the fall. Gold rose, oil grumbled, and crypto staged another public spectacle involving lasers and leverage. A normal week, in other words.

“Don’t you realize I have the power to free you or crucify you?”
—Pontius Pilate (Roman Governor and Judge)

Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: U.S. Markets in Full Panic Mode

The market took an absolute beating after President Trump’s surprise tariff announcement, which hit foreign imports with a 10% baseline and added steeper rates for major trading partners. The S&P 500 tumbled nearly 5%, marking its worst performance since June 2020, and wiping out over $3 trillion in market value.

What this means This isn’t just a slight hiccup—it’s a full-scale market panic. Trump’s tariffs are setting off a chain reaction, and we’re left to wonder if we’re witnessing the beginning of a trade war apocalypse or if markets will rebound in typical overreaction fashion. Buckle up for more volatility, especially in tech and consumer goods.

Point of interest Don’t bother hiding under a rock—80% of the S&P 500 was in the red, and even Apple lost over $300 billion in value. If you’re not diversifying by now, what’s your excuse?

Stock picks

• Low risk: Philip Morris $PM ( ▼ 7.07% ) – Because nothing soothes a market meltdown like lighting up.

• Medium risk: Target $TGT ( ▲ 1.53% ) – A retail giant that’s getting hammered by these tariffs, but still a steady long-term player.

• High risk: Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 7.36% ) – This tech titan may be caught in the crossfire, but the long-term prospects remain solid despite the temporary pain.

• Wildcard: Nike $NKE ( ▲ 3.01% ) – Hit hard by tariffs on imports from Vietnam. This stock could be the poster child for trade war fallout.

Nike’s Tariff Trouble: Swoosh Gets Stuck in a Supply Chain Snarl

Nike’s global supply chain just became a major liability after tariffs on imports from Vietnam—where Nike sources a significant portion of its footwear—rose to 46%. The stock took a 14% dive, signaling a bigger problem than just tariff trouble.

What this means Nike was already dealing with weak sales and compressed margins, and now, tariffs are tightening the noose. The Swoosh may be taking a breather, but it's still a long-term brand powerhouse. However, the global supply chain model is looking increasingly fragile.

Point of interest The irony isn’t lost here: Nike’s global brand was built on supply chains that are now part of the trade war’s collateral damage.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Adidas $ADDYY ( ▼ 1.74% ) – If Nike’s down, Adidas might be the most stable alternative.

• Medium risk: Foot Locker $FL ( ▲ 1.53% ) – The impact on Nike’s sales will hit Foot Locker, but it’s still a strong retail play.

• High risk: Under Armour $UA ( ▼ 0.97% ) – Another athletic brand caught in the tariff crossfire. Watch it tumble or rally depending on the recovery.

• Wildcard: Lululemon $LULU ( ▲ 3.15% ) – High demand for athleisure could give Lululemon a surprising edge over its competitors.

TikTok’s Tug-of-War: Amazon Gets in on the Action

As TikTok faces an impending ban in the U.S., Amazon has thrown its hat into the ring with a last-minute bid. But will China let this happen? And are we just seeing a game of political chess with high stakes?

What this means Amazon’s bid to acquire TikTok seems more like a strategic play to gain access to vast consumer data rather than a serious acquisition attempt. This saga is far from over, and China’s response will likely determine the outcome. If it goes through, Amazon could revolutionize its e-commerce platform with social media data.

Point of interest Amazon and Bezos have rarely discussed TikTok, making this late bid even more puzzling—perhaps it’s just to grab some attention before April 5’s deadline.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 4.15% ) – If Amazon does pull this off, it’s a data goldmine.

• Medium risk: Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 6.53% ) – A less volatile play that could still score big if TikTok is sold to a U.S. company.

• High risk: Meta $META ( ▼ 5.06% ) – Meta’s losing ground on social media platforms—could they see competition rise if TikTok becomes even more entrenched?

• Wildcard: Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 9.89% ) – A Chinese company caught in the U.S.-China tech wars. Risky, but a potential winner if things go its way.

Hershey Gets Snack Happy: $750 Million for Organic Popcorn

Hershey is diversifying beyond chocolate, snapping up organic popcorn company LesserEvil in a $750 million deal. The acquisition signals Hershey’s strategy to shift into healthier snacks and grow its portfolio.

What this means Hershey’s jumping into the healthy snack space suggests that traditional snack companies are pivoting to keep up with shifting consumer preferences. This is a move to capitalize on the growing trend of health-conscious munching, which is good news for shareholders.

Point of interest Hershey is getting with the times—organic popcorn is just the beginning. Who knows, next year, we could see Hershey taking over the veggie chip market.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Hershey $HSY ( ▼ 2.75% ) – With its strong brand and cash reserves, this is a solid long-term play.

• Medium risk: PepsiCo $PEP ( ▼ 3.15% ) – A major player in snacks, already diversifying in healthier options like baked chips and natural sodas.

• High risk: Mondelez International $MDLZ ( ▼ 2.34% ) – A competitor in snacks with exposure to both traditional and organic markets.

• Wildcard: Beyond Meat $BYND ( 0.0% ) – Healthier snacks and foods are the future, and Beyond Meat could get a surprising boost in this transition.

European Markets Brace for Tariff Aftershock

The EU is now living in the aftermath of Trump’s trade tariffs, with luxury, banking, and shipping stocks tumbling, while defensive sectors like utilities and defense see a rise.

What this means The markets are waking up to the reality of a full-blown trade war, and the EU is feeling the heat. The tariff blitz is hitting hard, but defensive sectors seem to be the safest bets for now.

Point of interest If you’ve ever wanted to buy European luxury stocks on sale, now might be the time—but don’t expect a smooth ride.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Diageo $DEO ( ▼ 3.74% ) – The spirits market might just weather the storm with steady demand.

• Medium risk: Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 6.78% ) – A defensive healthcare play with international appeal, largely unaffected by trade turmoil.

• High risk: HSBC $HSBC ( ▼ 6.84% ) – A bank deeply exposed to Asia; it’s bleeding, but could recover fast if tariffs ease.

• Wildcard: LVMH $LVMUY ( ▼ 4.69% ) – A luxury giant suffering now, but could see a quick bounce if sentiment shifts.

Top 5 Other Headlines

• Tariff Impact on Consumer Goods: Retailers like Wayfair ($W) are feeling the sting of higher tariffs, while staple goods like Philip Morris ($PM) are bucking the trend.

• Family Offices Shift Capital Out of U.S.: Family offices are pulling money out of the U.S., seeking safer ground amid political and economic uncertainty.

• Amazon to Launch Internet Satellites: Amazon aims to compete with Starlink by launching its own satellites on April 9, potentially reshaping the satellite internet market.

• Trump Says TikTok Deal is Imminent: Former President Trump claims a TikTok deal is within reach, with suitors including Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz.

• RH CEO’s Hot Mic Moment: RH’s CEO was caught on a hot mic cursing after watching his stock take a dive in the wake of bad earnings.

Wrapping Up

The verdict is in: guilty of optimism in the first degree.

Still, as the crowd disperses and traders pretend they understood the jobs report, remember—there’s always resurrection. It just may take a few quarters and a decent earnings call.

Meanwhile, the institutions will keep washing their hands of responsibility while retail investors scour r/WallStreetBets for messiahs with call options.

We’ll be back next week, quietly judging it all from a distance—with towel, basin, and briefcase in hand.

Until next time,
The Briefcase Team 💼

Send in your market memes. Best submissions earn free membership!

Access Our Private Portfolio