💼 The Old Curiosity Stocks: A Tale of Two Markets

The year’s twilight feels like London fog in a Dickens novel—thick, uncertain, and tinged with the weary shuffle of Bob Cratchit heading home after a long shift. Markets, too, have taken on their Scrooge-like tendencies, clinging tightly to every penny and grumbling at the faintest hint of risk. Yet, much like Dickens found hope in the unlikeliest corners, we find glimmers of opportunity in the haze.

In this Christmas issue, we’ll play the Ghosts of Investing—Past, Present, and Yet to Come—shedding light on the stories, strategies, and surprises that might just warm your portfolio’s winter chill.

BlackRock Bets Big on Private Credit

Story
BlackRock dropped a casual $12 billion on HPS Investment Partners, merging HPS’s $148 billion in client assets with BlackRock’s $89 billion private debt platform. This move vaults BlackRock into the top five private credit firms by AUM, adding $850 million in fees annually and cementing its alternative investment empire.

What this means
With traditional asset management margins thinner than Victorian gruel, BlackRock is hedging its ETF fortress by expanding into high-growth private credit. The cherry on this credit sundae? Just 6% overlap in LPs and a $20 billion retail credit platform ensure some serious synergies. Meanwhile, HPS execs can start 2025 with bottles of Dom that cost more than your monthly rent.

Point of interest
Private credit remains a mere pebble in BlackRock’s $11 trillion mountain of AUM—a reminder that even financial titans must diversify to stay in the game.

Stock picks

• Low risk: BlackRock ($BLK) — King of the ETF castle, now with a shiny private credit wing.

• Medium risk: Apollo Global Management ($APO) — A rival with similar ambitions, but fewer hats in the ring.

• High risk: Ares Management ($ARES) — Big credit player, but always ready to roll the dice.

• Wildcard: Owl Rock Capital ($ORCC) — Because, well, owls and wisdom go hand in hand.

Norway’s Sovereign Fund Goes All-In on U.S. Office Real Estate

Story
Norway’s $1.75 trillion sovereign wealth fund bought full ownership of eight prime office properties across Boston, San Francisco, and D.C. for nearly $977 million. Even as office real estate battles remote work and rising interest rates, Norway seems confident that prime locations will endure.

What this means
This is either a shrewd bet on high-quality assets or the real estate equivalent of shouting, “God bless us, everyone!” into the void. With a $1 trillion cushion, Norway can afford to make some optimistic moves. Worst case, they’ve got prime real estate to turn into WeWork 2.0 or an elaborate fjord-themed escape room.

Point of interest
Norway’s $27 billion real estate portfolio signals a bullish take on post-pandemic recovery. Or, perhaps, an extreme case of holiday cheer.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Prologis ($PLD) — Logistics and warehouses, aka the anti-office.

• Medium risk: Boston Properties ($BXP) — The nerve center of America’s office markets.

• High risk: Alexandria Real Estate ($ARE) — Biotech-focused offices, because scientists need desks too.

• Wildcard: WeWork ($WE) — For the brave-hearted and chaos lovers only.

Inflation Data Offers a Holiday Gift to Markets

Story
November’s personal consumption expenditure index rose just 0.1%—the lowest since May—while core PCE also ticked up by a meager 0.1%. Translation? Inflation is cooling, and markets are ecstatic, with the S&P 500 and Dow up over 1%.

What this means
It’s a “Santa Fed” moment: fewer rate hikes could be on the horizon, sending equity markets caroling all the way to year-end. Bond yields, meanwhile, are sobering up after a wild bender, offering fixed-income investors some seasonal joy.

Point of interest
Goods prices stayed flat, while services rose 0.2%. The disinflation sleigh ride has its winners (tech and bonds) and losers (service providers and your Uber driver’s gas bill).

Stock picks

• Low risk: iShares Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) — A sensible bond pick for quieter times.

• Medium risk: SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) — A sleigh ride to broad market gains.

• High risk: ARK Innovation ETF ($ARKK) — Cathie Wood’s rollercoaster, now with festive lights.

• Wildcard: Bitcoin ($BTC) — Because even Scrooge is dabbling in digital coins.

Oura Smart Ring Secures $200M Funding

Story
Oura, maker of smart sleep-tracking rings, raised $200 million at a $5.2 billion valuation. With wearables booming, Oura aims to expand its health tech footprint, despite looming competition from Apple and Fitbit.

What this means
Oura’s valuation suggests investors are smitten with niche health tech. But staying niche in a world where Apple dominates might be the health-tech equivalent of fighting Scrooge with a soup ladle. Still, if Oura cracks glucose monitoring via its Dexcom partnership, it might just have a golden goose.

Point of interest
Wellness is hot, but so is competition. Oura will need more than a good night’s sleep to fend off Apple’s juggernaut.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Apple ($AAPL) — A wellness empire hidden in plain sight.

• Medium risk: Dexcom ($DXCM) — Riding the glucose-monitoring wave.

• High risk: Alphabet ($GOOGL) — Fitbit’s parent might have health ambitions of its own.

• Wildcard: Garmin ($GRMN) — For those nostalgic for the pre-iPhone era.

The Yield Curve Steepens as Markets Eye Fed Moves

Story
The 2Y-10Y Treasury yield curve hit its steepest point since June 2022, narrowing to 27 basis points. Markets are betting that the Fed’s tightening spree is nearly done, hinting at a brighter 2025.

What this means
A steepening yield curve is typically a sign of recovery, but let’s not break out the champagne just yet. Missteps are always lurking—like that one overly enthusiastic relative at Christmas dinner.

Point of interest
The UK’s FTSE 100 slipped to a four-week low amid global yield shifts, proving once again that when one market sneezes, others reach for tissues.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ($BND) — A safe harbor in a steepening storm.

• Medium risk: JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) — Ready to thrive, curve or no curve.

• High risk: Invesco Financial Preferred ETF ($PGF) — A yield play with flair.

• Wildcard: Tesla ($TSLA) — Because nothing screams “curve” like an Elon tweet.

Wrapping up

As we draw the curtain on this edition, let us leave you with a Dickensian pearl of wisdom: the fortunes of the generous tend to outlast the schemes of the miser. Investing, after all, rewards the patient risk-taker, not the one forever counting coins by candlelight. May your days ahead be merry, your returns bright, and your portfolio ever free from the ghosts of missed opportunities.

Cheers,
The Briefcase Team 💼