💼 The Genius of Crisis: M&A, Tariffs, and Tech Shuffles

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Gold hitting record highs

The price of gold keeps heating up. If the record-breaking year of 2024 wasn't enough, gold hit a major historic 2025 milestone by crossing the $3,000/ounce threshold!

Here are 3 Key Reasons:

1. Looming economic & political uncertainty

2. Increasing central bank demand

3. Rising National Debt - over $36 Trillion

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According to a recent statement from Jeffrey Gundlach, famed American business man and investor… “Gold continues its bull market that we’ve been talking about for a couple of years, ever since it was down to $1,800.” He expects gold to reach $4,000/oz.

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Good afternoon,

Ah, crisis—nature’s favorite catalyst for brilliance. As Ralph Waldo Emerson wisely noted, “Crisis is what suppresses the dull and brings out the genius.” This week, if you haven’t seen a crisis or two, then you’re likely living under a rock—or more accurately, under a pile of market volatility. From Trump’s tariff rollercoaster to Nvidia’s valiant (and somewhat questionable) China workaround, there’s no shortage of seismic shifts shaking the status quo.

“Crisis is what suppresses the dull and brings out the genius”.
—Ralph Waldo Emerson (American Essayist)

Trump Delays EU Tariff Hike to July 9: The Tariff Tease

Story After a diplomatic pow-wow with Ursula von der Leyen, Trump has pushed the start of his proposed 50% tariff on the European Union until July 9. This postponement gives both sides more time to figure out whether a deal is possible or whether they’ll continue to engage in a game of tariff chicken.

What this means The delay buys the EU some breathing room but also ensures that uncertainty lingers, keeping markets on edge. The looming tariff threat could add another layer of volatility, particularly for companies with strong European exposure.

Point of interest Watch the currency markets and multinational companies with significant EU exposure. The delay could be a temporary reprieve or just a pause before the trade drama escalates further.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 2.72% ) – Despite the tariff threat, Apple's diversified global market and massive cash reserves make it a stable pick.

• Medium risk: Volkswagen $VOW3.DE – German automaker facing the brunt of potential tariffs; its stock could be hit if Trump pulls the trigger later in the summer.

• High risk: Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 6.78% ) – Although Tesla has benefited from European market expansion, it’s highly exposed to trade risks given its gigafactories in Europe.

• Wildcard: Nokia $NOK ( ▲ 1.4% ) – This could benefit from U.S. protectionist policies, positioning itself as a crucial player in Europe for 5G infrastructure.

Nvidia’s China Workaround: The AI Lite Chip

Story Nvidia, no stranger to geopolitical squabbles, has crafted a workaround for the Chinese market: a new, lower-powered GPU dubbed the RTX Pro 6000D. The move follows a sharp drop in its market share, which fell from 95% to 50% due to restrictions on its more powerful chips.

What this means Nvidia is shifting its China strategy to avoid U.S. sanctions while still maintaining a foothold in the lucrative data center market. This compromise could have broader implications for the company’s pricing power and market dominance.

Point of interest If China starts embracing this lower-spec version, it could signal a new competitive landscape for Nvidia in the global data center chip market.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 1.94% ) – The company has diverse business units, and its Azure cloud platform is poised to benefit from any AI adoption, even in China.

• Medium risk: Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.07% ) – While the chipmaker is attempting to adjust its offerings, the volatility of its core business makes it a risky but necessary play for AI exposure.

• High risk: Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 4.34% ) – As Nvidia’s competitor, AMD could benefit from market share shifts caused by Nvidia's pivot in China.

• Wildcard: Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▲ 2.24% ) – With a strong presence in mobile and IoT, Qualcomm might make a surprising move into AI chips if Nvidia stumbles.

Trump Media Bets Big on Crypto: The MAGA Blockchain Revolution

Story Trump Media & Technology Group is diving headfirst into the crypto world with a $3 billion play. Their new venture, Truth.Fi, will offer a mix of digital assets, ETFs, and even a crypto exchange targeting “American patriots” allegedly sidelined by traditional banking.

What this means The pivot into crypto could redefine Trump’s media brand, combining nostalgia, finance, and digital assets. But with the volatile nature of crypto markets, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will pay off or be another overhyped venture.

Point of interest The combination of political fervor and crypto could attract a niche yet fervent audience, but crypto's volatility makes it a risky space for long-term investors.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 1.52% ) – A stable pick in the crypto space, although not without volatility.

• Medium risk: Block $XYZ ( ▲ 6.1% ) – As a key player in the payments space, Block is expanding into crypto but remains exposed to regulatory scrutiny.

• High risk: Crypto-related ETFs – These could see major gains or losses depending on the political climate and public sentiment towards Trump’s crypto ventures.

• Wildcard: Riot Blockchain $RIOT ( ▲ 6.2% ) – A pure-play mining company that could see a massive boost or collapse, depending on how much traction Trump’s new platform gains.

Gelato’s Sweet Deal: €900M Casa Optima Acquisition

Story Charterhouse Capital Partners is selling gelato ingredient maker Casa Optima to a Terlos-led consortium in a deal valuing the company at €900 million. Casa Optima supplies ingredients to over 30,000 gelato shops and pastry spots worldwide, making it a prime player in the food space.

What this means Despite broader market volatility, the demand for premium food products like gelato remains strong. This acquisition underscores the resilience of the food sector, particularly in premium markets.

Point of interest This deal highlights that while macroeconomic challenges abound, luxury food sectors continue to offer stable returns.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Nestle $NESN.SW – The global food giant’s premium offerings continue to perform well, making it a safer pick in the food sector.

• Medium risk: Unilever $ULVR.L – Its diverse portfolio includes premium food lines that could benefit from Casa Optima’s success.

• High risk: FrieslandCampina $FCP.AS – A Dutch dairy cooperative that could expand into premium food ingredients through acquisitions like Casa Optima.

• Wildcard: Ferrero (private) – While not publicly traded, Ferrero’s potential move into the gelato space could provide an interesting investment opportunity.

Booz Allen Hamilton Slashes 2,500 Jobs: Federal Spending Squeeze

Story Booz Allen Hamilton is slashing 2,500 jobs due to federal budget cuts and a slowdown in government contracts. The company’s civil division has been hit hardest, as the U.S. government tightens its fiscal belt.

What this means A reflection of broader trends in the government contracting space, Booz Allen’s restructuring is a signal that cost-cutting and job cuts could become the norm for firms reliant on government contracts.

Point of interest Watch for other government contractors to follow suit. This is a sign that federal spending could continue to stagnate.

Stock picks

• Low risk: General Dynamics $GD ( ▲ 1.66% ) – A large defense contractor with diversified revenue streams, including government contracts.

• Medium risk: Northrop Grumman $NOC ( ▲ 0.27% ) – Focused on defense and cybersecurity, Northrop Grumman’s government exposure could see similar pressures, but its core businesses remain solid.

• High risk: L3Harris Technologies $LHX ( ▲ 3.29% ) – A tech-heavy contractor that could face headwinds but is positioning itself well in the defense and communication sectors.

• Wildcard: Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 0.19% ) – With its government contracts and big data focus, Palantir could thrive or crumble under federal budget pressures.

Top 5 M&A / Investments

1. $6.9B Acquisition of Wanda Malls
   Chinese regulators approved the $6.9B acquisition of 48 Wanda malls by PAG, with investments from Tencent, JD.com, and Sunshine Life. This acquisition strengthens their positions in the retail real estate market.

2. $5.4B Potential Sale or IPO of AA
   Towerbrook, Warburg Pincus, and Stonepeak are considering a sale or IPO of UK roadside assistance firm AA at a valuation of $5.4B, a major move in the UK services sector.

3. WiseTech Global Acquires E2open for $2.1B
   Australian shipping software company WiseTech Global has agreed to acquire US logistics company E2open for $2.1B, expanding its global supply chain software portfolio.

4. RedBird Capital Partners Acquires The Telegraph
   RedBird Capital Partners agreed to acquire The Telegraph for $674M, resolving two years of uncertainty for the UK newspaper group.

5. Terlos Group to Acquire Casa Optima for ~$1B
   Investment firm Terlos is set to acquire gelato and pastry ingredient maker Casa Optima from Charterhouse Capital Partners in a deal valued at ~$1B, including debt.

Top 5 VC Deals

1. Strava Raises at $2.2B Valuation
   Viral running fitness app Strava raised funding at a $2.2B valuation, led by Sequoia Capital, continuing its dominance in the fitness app space.

2. EngineAI to Raise $140M
   Chinese humanoid robotics developer EngineAI is set to raise $140M at a $1B valuation, signaling strong interest in humanoid robotics and AI applications.

3. Legora Raises $80M Series B
   Swedish AI legal assistant startup Legora raised $80M in Series B funding, led by ICONIQ and General Catalyst, at a $675M valuation, boosting AI-driven legal tech innovation.

4. Monarch Raises $75M at $850M Valuation
   Personal finance app Monarch raised $75M in Series B funding, led by Forerunner Ventures and FPV Ventures, showing strong growth in the fintech space.

5. Salvia BioElectronics Raises $60M Series B
   Dutch medtech startup Salvia BioElectronics raised $60M Series B led by Innovation Industries, advancing its bioelectronics innovations for medical applications.

Wrapping up

As we close this week's installment, let’s take a moment to appreciate the beauty of a good crisis—because as Emerson reminds us, it’s the pressure that makes the diamond. In the face of trade wars, geopolitical skirmishes, and tech pivots, there’s no shortage of opportunities for the clever investor to thrive.

So as the markets continue their dance of uncertainty, remember: brilliance isn’t born from comfort—it’s forged in a fire of disruption.

Until next time,
The Briefcase Team 💼

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