💼 Plato's Republic of Failing Returns

If Plato’s Ship of State were Wall Street’s China gamble, the crew would’ve mutinied by now. Five years ago, bankers swore China’s $67T market was the North Star; today, they’re tossing yuan-denominated bonds overboard like expired rations. Goldman’s $67M haul? A rounding error in their Titanic-sized P&L. As the ship veers toward safer harbors (read: SPACs and crypto), Jamie Dimon’s “full-force” pledge floats face-down beside Trump’s BRICS tariffs and JPMorgan’s desk shortage—proof that even philosophers can’t navigate a market that mistakes mirages for maps.

Wall Street’s China Breakup: It’s Not Them, It’s You

Story Remember 2020, when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan swore China was their soulmate? Fast-forward to 2025: the romance has fizzled into a mutual ghosting. Banks have slashed China headcounts by 15%, dumped 20% of their exposure, and Goldman’s $67M in Chinese revenue over five years now qualifies as “loose change found in the couch.”

What this means China’s economy isn’t just stumbling—it’s face-planting into geopolitics. The IPO pipeline? Drier than a martini at a prohibition party. Wall Street’s exit strategy: cut losses, blame regulators, and pretend they never flirted with yuan-denominated bonds.

Point of interest Jamie Dimon’s pledge to go “full force” in China aged like milk left in a Tesla Cybertruck. Meanwhile, UBS’s investment banking team now fits in a minivan.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) – For banks that remembered home is where the FDIC is.

• Medium Risk: iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) – Optimism: the financial equivalent of a participation trophy.

• High Risk: Alibaba (BABA) – E-commerce meets existential crisis.

• Wildcard: Yeti Holdings (YETI) – Stock up on coolers for the capital flight.

Markets: Bulls on Xanax

Story The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week, Nasdaq popped 2.6%, and Treasury yields dipped to 4.48% as retail sales whimpered louder than a middle manager in a layoff meeting. Corporate earnings? A cozy 77% of S&P firms beat estimates—because lowering the bar is Wall Street’s oldest trick.

What this means Investors are pricing in a “soft-ish landing” where inflation takes a sabbatical but keeps its gym membership. Tech still reigns, but the throne’s wobbling like a Jenga tower built by interns.

Point of interest Airbnb’s CEO wants to be the “Amazon of travel.” Because nothing says “trustworthy” like renting a stranger’s treehouse during a wildfire season.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) – For those who think “adventure” is a 2% yield.

• Medium Risk: NVIDIA (NVDA) – Chips: now powering AI, crypto, and existential dread.

• High Risk: Tesla (TSLA) – Because Elon’s 13th child must be a growth driver.

• Wildcard: MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Bitcoin’s corporate sidepiece.

Private Equity’s Midlife Crisis

Story Carlyle bought an HR firm for $325M, Prenuvo raised $120M for MRI selfies, and K2 Space launched a $110M satellite. Meanwhile, PE fundraising has the enthusiasm of a DMV line—StepStone scraped together $2.4B for real estate secondaries.

What this means PE’s pivot to niche deals—satellites, MRI scans, 3D-printed homes—is the financial equivalent of buying artisanal pickles. Big-ticket takeovers? So 2023.

Point of interest BlackRock’s shopping a $10B stake in Singapore’s Vena Energy. Solar panels: the new black (and also green, ironically).

Stock picks

• Low Risk: Blackstone (BX) – The Godfather of carry fees.

• Medium Risk: AppLovin (APP) – Because mobile gaming isn’t dystopian enough.

• High Risk: CyberArk (CYBR) – Hackers need hobbies too.

• Wildcard: Virgin Galactic (SPCE) – For literal pie-in-the-sky returns.

Earnings: Crypto’s Greatest Hits Tour

Story Coinbase surged 8% on crypto’s post-election rally, Airbnb jumped 15% (thanks, millennial wanderlust), and DraftKings missed revenue but raised guidance—a corporate “hold my beer” moment. Moderna’s up next, ready to play variant bingo.

What this means Crypto’s back! Or at least until the SEC remembers it exists. Meanwhile, “travel demand” is code for “people still hate their homes.”

Point of interest Coinbase’s revenue hit a 3-year high. Elon’s 13th child remains unconfirmed, but Dogecoin holders are already drafting the adoption papers.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) – Crypto with training wheels.

• Medium Risk: Airbnb (ABNB) – For investors who think “risk” is skipping travel insurance.

• High Risk: Riot Blockchain (RIOT) – Subtlety is overrated.

• Wildcard: Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) – Shhh, let people enjoy things.

Wildcard: Corporate Darwinism Awards

Story Uber sued DoorDash (again), JPMorgan ran out of desks, and Ashley St. Clair claims Elon’s 13th child. Argentina’s President Milei faces impeachment over a meme coin rug pull—because 2025 needed more plot twists than a telenovela.

What this means Corporate drama is the new national sport, and popcorn sales have hit ATHs. LesserEvil is reportedly seeking a $1B sale - reminding everyone that even snack brands can have a valuation that makes no sense.

Point of interest NYC singles pay $20k/year to live alone. Solitude: the ultimate flex in a world of open-floor plans and oversharing.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: Match Group (MTCH) – Loneliness is a $40B market.

• Medium Risk: WeWork (WE) – “Deskless futures” sounds like a threat.

• High Risk: GameStop (GME) – Bitcoin rumors? Sure, why not.

• Wildcard: Trump Media (DJT) – For investors who miss 2021.

Roundup: The Week’s Other Headlines

While the big stories grabbed the spotlight, here’s a quick rundown of the other notable happenings this week:

1. Musk’s xAI: Now Worth More Than Several Small Nations
   Elon Musk’s AI venture is in talks to raise $10B at a $75B valuation, proving that the fastest way to inflate a company’s worth is to slap “AI” on it and let VCs hallucinate.

2. Honda to Nissan: “We’ll Buy You... If You Fire Your CEO First”
   Honda is reportedly waiting for Nissan’s CEO to leave before resuming takeover talks—because nothing says “friendly acquisition” like a preconditioned coup.

3. Broadcom and TSMC Look to Dismantle Intel Like a Yard Sale
   Intel's chip business is attracting bids from Broadcom and TSMC, marking yet another chapter in Silicon Valley’s favorite pastime: scavenging yesterday’s tech giants.

4. Shein’s UK IPO Valuation Cut: Fast Fashion, Fast Depreciation
   Shein is being pressured to slash its UK IPO valuation to $30B, confirming that even in high finance, what looks cheap at checkout often falls apart after a few washes.

5. AI Startup Raises $30B, Hasn’t Made a Dollar Yet
   Safe Superintelligence, founded by OpenAI’s ex-chief scientist, is raising over $1B at a $30B valuation—because nothing says "safe" like setting cash on fire in the name of progress.

Wrapping up

Plato’s philosopher-king would’ve scoffed at this week’s theatrics: Bitcoin’s “digital gold” delusion, Argentina’s meme coin impeachment, and Ashley St. Clair’s Muskian progeny claims (still unconfirmed, still monetized). But in a democracy of semantics, reason is just another altcoin.

As China’s ship sails into the fog, ask yourself: Would Plato hold $DJT, short $BABA, or simply retire to Plato’s cave without Wi-Fi?

Carpe spreadsheets,
The Briefcase Team

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