💼 Full-Bodied Finance: Notes of Risk, Hints of Reward

Bienvenue. If the newsletter were a wine, it’d be a fine Burgundy: rich, complex, and slightly acidic (in tone). As a French sommelier might say, today’s markets have le goût de crise—notes of uncertainty, undertones of AI disruption, and a long finish of geopolitical tension. But don’t worry, we’ll help you sip through the uncertain and decant this week’s vintage of business news and serve it in perfectly tempered glasses. Santé.

Stargate: The Billion-Dollar AI Bonanza

Altman, Ellison, and Son walk into a $100B data centre project... and call it Stargate.

Story
Sam Altman (OpenAI), Larry Ellison (Oracle), and Masayoshi Son (SoftBank) are combining forces to build an AI infrastructure empire. Starting with a cool $100B, they aim to scale up to $500B, creating 100,000 jobs and a data centre the size of Texas (literally). The goal? Dominate AI infrastructure, keep China at bay, and solidify "Made in America" as the hallmark of AI excellence.

What this means
If successful, Stargate could be to AI what the Manhattan Project was to physics—except, you know, less nuclear and more neural. If it flops, it’ll be like WeWork 2.0, but with more robots and fewer kombucha taps.

Point of interest
OpenAI needs Oracle because Microsoft, its much older ‘special friend’ that takes them for expensive lunches, simply can’t keep up with demand. Somewhere, Satya Nadella is side-eyeing Ellison like a jilted lover.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Oracle ($ORCL) – Solid, profitable, and now an AI darling.

• Medium risk: NVIDIA ($NVDA) – Chips will power this whole shebang.

• High risk: SoftBank ($9984.T) – Masayoshi Son’s bets are either moonshots or craters.

• Wildcard: Arista Networks ($ANET) – Networking gear for all that AI traffic.

Netflix: Same Show, Higher Price

Netflix hikes prices like we’re all earning Silicon Valley salaries.

Story
Netflix smashed earnings yet again, adding 19M subscribers to surpass 300M memberships. To mark the occasion, they’re raising their standard plan price from $15.49 to $17.99. Analysts are ecstatic; subscribers, not so much.

What this means
It’s the tried-and-true streaming strategy: release just enough new content to keep you hooked, then tighten the financial screws like the waistband of your jeans after Christmas dinner.

Point of interest
Their crackdown on password-sharing didn’t just work—it soared. Turns out people would rather fork over cash than face a painfully awkward family group chat about who still owes $3.

Stock picks

• Low risk: Netflix ($NFLX) – The subscription powerhouse keeps generating cash.

• Medium risk: Disney ($DIS) – Once they sort out Hulu, they’re poised for growth.

• High risk: Roku ($ROKU) – A smaller player, but with upside as streaming keeps expanding.

• Wildcard: Lionsgate ($LGF.A) – With "Hunger Games" prequel buzz, this could be their moment.

Tariff Tango: Trump’s Back with a Bang

Trump revives tariffs, aiming to put American jobs first.

Story
Starting 1 February, Trump plans to reintroduce 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. His goal? To protect American manufacturing and create leverage for future trade negotiations. While critics are calling it a tax on global trade, supporters argue it’s a bold move to level the playing field.

What this means
Trump’s “art of the deal” strategy remains intact: come out swinging with tough rhetoric and big numbers, then negotiate a softer landing. While the markets were briefly rattled, his previous track record of landing outcomes suggests this could be more bark than bite.

Point of interest
Canada and Mexico might be gearing up for another round of trade talks, but Trump’s fan base will likely see this as a win for “America First.”

Stock picks

• Low risk: Walmart ($WMT) – When prices rise, Walmart’s affordability keeps customers loyal.

• Medium risk: Procter & Gamble ($PG) – A multinational giant that’s weathered trade wars before.

• High risk: Tesla ($TSLA) – Facing potential supply chain cost increases, but never count out Musk’s adaptability.

• Wildcard: Deere & Co. ($DE) – Farmers might see equipment demand soar if domestic production ramps up.

Goldman Goes Private (Equity)

Goldman Sachs is now just a PE firm with better stationery.

Story
Goldman is doubling down on private equity, as big banks look increasingly like hedge funds in disguise. Oh, and they’re rolling out an AI assistant to help employees. Because nothing says “profit” like firing humans and hiring bots.

What this means
When Wall Street’s smartest guys are chasing alternative assets and automating operations, it’s a signal: public markets might be a tougher playground for the next decade.

Point of interest
Their AI assistant is codenamed “GS Alpha.” Wall Street wags have already renamed it “LayoffBot 3000.”

Stock picks

• Low risk: BlackRock ($BLK) – The OG asset management giant.

• Medium risk: Goldman Sachs ($GS) – The kings of pivoting with the times.

• High risk: Carlyle Group ($CG) – PE-focused, but volatile.

• Wildcard: Upstart ($UPST) – AI lending plays could ride the wave.

Booze Brands Bet on Heavy Drinkers

Alcohol companies pivot to “customers who drink... a lot.”

Story
Faced with declining sales, big booze brands are targeting their heaviest drinkers. Roughly 10% of drinkers account for 70% of alcohol consumed. If that sounds like a recipe for public health disaster, well, it probably is.

What this means
It’s a grim but effective strategy: find the most loyal customers and sell them more. Think “Netflix, but for hangovers.”

Point of interest
When asked about sustainability, one exec allegedly replied, “We’ve never considered vodka sustainable—except for sustaining profits.”

Stock picks

• Low risk: Diageo ($DEO) – World’s largest spirits producer, steady profits.

• Medium risk: Boston Beer ($SAM) – Craft beer and hard seltzer bets.

• High risk: Molson Coors ($TAP) – Betting big on premiumisation.

• Wildcard: Duckhorn Portfolio ($NAPA) – Boutique wine could appeal to “sophisticated” drinkers.

Wrapping up

And so concludes this week’s Briefcase, decanted for your intellectual consumption. Like a fine Bordeaux, the markets are complex, unpredictable, and best enjoyed with patience (and maybe a glass of wine). Remember, whether you’re investing in AI, tariffs, or alcohol, timing and balance are everything.

And with that, drink responsibly, and let your portfolios age like a fine Pomerol.

Cheers,
The Briefcase Team