💼 Capital Crimes: Murder on the Financial Express

Welcome to this week’s financial whodunit—a tale of intrigue, deception, and the occasional rate hike. Our story begins with central banks shuffling like suspects at a dinner party, each armed with an alibi for why inflation isn’t their fault. The Fed insists they’ve done enough, the BoE is playing coy, and the Bank of Japan lurks in the corner, plotting its next unpredictable move.

Elsewhere, the stock market’s latest victim, the London Stock Exchange, has been found slumped in a metaphorical armchair, clutching a note that simply reads “Brexit.” Databricks is raising billions faster than Hercule Poirot can raise an eyebrow, and Bitcoin—enigmatic as ever—continues its relentless ascent, leaving regulators and skeptics muttering about foul play.

One must now piece together the clues and solve the mystery of what all this means for your portfolio.

The Exodus from London’s Stock Exchange

Story
London is losing its shine, or perhaps just its patience. The number of publicly traded companies on the London Stock Exchange has dropped to its lowest since the financial crisis. Firms are going private, listing elsewhere, or opting for the corporate equivalent of becoming a hermit.

What this means
London, once the center of global finance, is now the financial world’s faded aristocrat—living on legacy but overshadowed by the cool tech kids in New York and Amsterdam. Strict regulations, Brexit woes, and a scarcity of homegrown tech unicorns have made the LSE feel like an exclusive club nobody wants to join.

Point of Interest
Broadcom just hit a $1T market cap—a milestone that feels like science fiction in the UK, where the closest thing to a tech IPO is a food delivery app still bleeding cash.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) – A play on the hope that reform can polish the tarnish.

• Medium Risk: Amsterdam-listed Prosus (PRX.AS) – Amsterdam's stock exchange has become the new Soho House for IPOs.

• High Risk: SoftBank (9984.T) – Betting on Asia filling the gap with new tech listings.

• Wildcard: Burberry (BRBY.L) – Because if London isn’t selling tech, at least it still sells trench coats.

Databricks’ Record-Breaking Raise

Story
Databricks is raising $9.5B at a $60B valuation, reminding everyone that the AI bubble is not so much inflating as it is stretching to intergalactic proportions. Thrive Capital, a16z, and Insight Partners are leading the charge, proving once again that the phrase “smart money” is relative.

What this means
Databricks is cashing in on a trend—AI tools that claim to “upgrade workflows” rather than replacing workers. Translation: They’re helping people do the same thing, just with more buzzwords and fewer Excel crashes. With this raise, Databricks has Snowflake squarely in its sights, but let’s face it, both companies are probably too busy buying ping-pong tables for their new offices to notice.

Point of Interest
Databricks CEO said their AI tools are about improving workflows, not replacing workers. That sound you hear is recruiters taking notes for their next LinkedIn posts.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Microsoft (MSFT) – If Databricks is the house, Azure is the foundation.

• Medium Risk: NVIDIA (NVDA) – AI without NVIDIA is like brunch without avocado toast.

• High Risk: Snowflake (SNOW) – Nothing like a bit of competition to keep the AI party interesting.

• Wildcard: AMD (AMD) – Making quiet but impressive moves in the AI arms race.

Bitcoin’s All-Time High and Longevity

Story
Bitcoin hit $106K, giving hodlers a reason to check their portfolios in public again. This is its longest winning streak since 2021, thanks to institutional buying, shaky faith in fiat currencies, and Bitcoin's shiny new narrative as "digital gold" (minus the heavy lifting).

What this means
This isn’t just retail investors betting on a lambo—it’s hedge funds, corporates, and sovereign funds hedging against inflation and geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin’s ability to repeatedly rise from the ashes might be the most impressive comeback since Mark Zuckerburg.

Point of Interest
Palantir and MicroStrategy have joined the Nasdaq 100, proving that hoarding Bitcoin is no longer just for Redditors and tech bros—it’s now an institutional sport.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: MicroStrategy (MSTR) – The Bitcoin play for people who want to pretend it’s about tech.

• Medium Risk: Coinbase (COIN) – Every crypto rally starts and ends here.

• High Risk: Silvergate Capital (SI) – A high-wire act that could go either way.

• Wildcard: Block (SQ) – Jack Dorsey may yet turn Bitcoin zeal into profits.

The Central Bankers’ Balancing Act

Story
Inflation’s cooling, but not quite enough for central bankers to let down their guard. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, the BoE will probably do the same, and the BoJ, after turning heads with rate hikes earlier this year, might just opt for a quiet holiday season.

What this means
Central bankers are walking a tightrope between keeping inflation tame and avoiding an economic nosedive. The Fed’s dot plot is now a must-watch show for market nerds, while China’s monetary policy, which seems to be playing a completely different game, offers a fascinating subplot.

Point of Interest
China’s record-low yields and “moderately loose” policy are a striking contrast to everyone else’s “grip tighter and hope” strategy. Arbitrage, anyone?

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) – Bonds are officially cool again.

• Medium Risk: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) – Emerging markets are overdue for a glow-up.

• High Risk: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) – Central banks are still hoarding it for a reason.

• Wildcard: ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (YCS) – If the BoJ sneezes, this one will catch a cold.

The End of M&A’s Golden Era?

Story
Ken Moelis, founder of boutique investment bank Moelis & Co., has declared that M&A banking is headed for the graveyard. Instead, the action is shifting to private credit, where deals are faster, cleaner, and just as profitable.

What this means
Investment banks might have to evolve or face the same fate as Blockbuster. Private credit is taking over because it’s like the Uber of finance—no waiting around for regulatory approvals or billion-dollar egos to align.

Point of Interest
Blackstone now has over 40% of its portfolio in private credit, proving that if you want to stay ahead in this game, you’ve got to lend money like you mean it.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Blackstone ($BX) – The Beyoncé of private credit.

• Medium Risk: Ares Capital ($ARCC) – Reliable, consistent, and quietly winning.

• High Risk: Moelis & Co. ($MC) – Betting they’ll pivot faster than an M&A deal falling apart.

• Wildcard: Owl Rock Capital ($ORCC) – A lesser-known player with serious private debt exposure.

Wrapping up

And so, dear reader, we leave this week’s mystery unresolved, as markets, central banks, and AI startups slip into the shadows like suspects in a Christie novel. Was it the Fed in the drawing room with the dot plot? The BoJ in the conservatory with the yield curve? Or Bitcoin in the library with…well, everything?

As you sift through the evidence, remember: the key to surviving this market mystery isn’t finding the perfect answer, but staying one step ahead of the chaos. Whether you’re investing in bonds, tech titans, or Bitcoin zealots, play it cool, keep your balance sheet tidy, and don’t let the red herrings distract you.

Cheers,
The Briefcase Team 💼

P.S. Keep your briefcase open on Friday for our Wildcard Deep Dive Edition.