💼 The Bubble, the Bounce, and the Bait: A Week of Tempting Trades

In partnership with

Good Afternoon,

We’ve all been there, haven’t we? You know the moment when the market whispers sweet nothings about a new trend, and suddenly, it’s different this time. Those four words, “this time it’s different,” have led more than a few investors straight into the jaws of regret. And while we all know the market has a way of convincing us that the next big thing is going to change everything (looking at you, AI and the latest Neuralink funding round), let’s not forget Sir John Templeton’s warning: history has a habit of repeating itself—particularly when it comes to overpriced assets and dubious assumptions.

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it’s different”.
—Sir John Templeton (American-British Investor and Banker)

Elon Musk's Neuralink Raises $600M Amid Recession Fears

Story Neuralink, Elon Musk’s brain-computer interface company, has raised $600 million at a $9 billion valuation, despite concerns over a potential recession. The investment comes at a time when many companies are tightening their belts, yet Musk’s ambitions continue to soar. Neuralink is targeting radical advances in neuroscience, but Musk’s controversial approach to innovation has left some skeptical.

What this means While recession fears loom, Musk is proving that cutting-edge tech—especially in health and AI—still has the appetite for big bets. Neuralink’s success could set the stage for similar high-risk, high-reward ventures in the AI space.

Point of interest Musk’s ability to fund ambitious projects in times of economic uncertainty highlights the growing divide between traditional industries and disruptive, future-forward technology companies.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.19% ) – Consistently pushing forward in AI, Microsoft’s cloud services and AI investments continue to impress despite market jitters.

• Medium Risk: Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 2.37% ) – Their AI-driven solutions are gaining traction in government and business, making them a solid bet in uncertain times.

• High Risk: Neuralink – Direct exposure to Musk’s audacious ventures in neurotech. If it succeeds, it could redefine the industry; if not, it’s a loss.

• Wildcard: Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.55% ) – Musk’s empire is interconnected, and if Neuralink succeeds, it might provide a fresh wave of investor interest in all things Musk, including Tesla.

Briefcase beats the S&P 500 by over 50%. Check it out below ⬇️

Zuckerberg's Meta Dividends Hit $1B—Profit's in the (Meta) Details

Story Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta has reached a $1 billion milestone in dividends, thanks to a resurgence in its core social media business and growing advertising revenues. Despite regulatory hurdles and fierce competition, Meta’s return to profitability has made Zuckerberg a formidable player in the tech space once again.

What this means Meta’s rebound signals that social media giants still have plenty of room for growth, especially if they can pivot successfully into the metaverse and beyond.

Point of interest The impressive dividend payout will undoubtedly keep Meta on investors’ radar, but whether it can maintain the momentum in the face of market volatility is the question.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.13% ) – With a diversified portfolio in both search and cloud services, Alphabet continues to dominate despite external pressures.

• Medium Risk: Meta $META ( ▲ 3.16% ) – With its significant pivot toward the metaverse, the risks are high, but so are the potential rewards.

• High Risk: Snapchat $SNAP ( ▲ 0.96% ) – Social media may be down, but it’s not out. Investors betting on Snapchat’s next big feature might strike gold or face a long drought.

• Wildcard: Pinterest $PINS ( ▲ 2.05% ) – Despite lagging behind in the battle for social media dominance, Pinterest could make a surprise comeback with targeted content.

Private Equity Faces Challenges as Dimon Pushes for Carried Interest Tax

Story JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is pushing for higher taxes on private equity firms, particularly focusing on the carried interest loophole. While the call to tax private equity comes as part of a broader debate on income inequality, it could change the way PE firms structure their deals moving forward.

What this means Increased taxes on private equity firms could significantly alter their investment strategies and profitability. Institutional investors will be keeping a close eye on potential ripple effects across the broader economy.

Point of interest Dimon’s stance underscores a growing shift in how wealth is taxed, signaling that the private equity sector may not remain the same cushy playground for billionaires that it once was.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 0.7% ) – A powerhouse in asset management that’s well-positioned to adapt to any tax changes impacting PE firms.

• Medium Risk: KKR & Co. $KKR ( ▲ 0.03% ) – As a leading PE firm, any shifts in tax policy could impact their margins, but they’re still well-positioned for growth.

• High Risk: Carlyle Group $CG ( ▼ 0.4% ) – One of the major players in PE, Carlyle could feel the pinch more than others if Dimon’s tax push gains traction.

• Wildcard: Apollo Global Management $APO ( ▼ 0.61% ) – Known for aggressive dealmaking, Apollo might be the one to watch if new tax regulations spark a restructuring of PE deals.

AI Becomes the New Hiring Manager: Job Interviews by Algorithm

Story AI is now conducting job interviews, screening candidates with no human involvement. With more companies turning to AI to streamline hiring processes, it's becoming clear that the workforce of the future might be managed by algorithms before humans even get a chance to meet face-to-face.

What this means While AI-driven hiring promises efficiency and objectivity, it also raises concerns about bias, job displacement, and the “human touch” being lost in recruitment.

Point of interest The irony is not lost on us—machines that judge humans for a living. Will we all end up in an algorithmic version of ‘The Hunger Games’?

Stock picks

• Low Risk: IBM $IBM ( ▲ 0.12% ) – Long an AI leader, IBM is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI in business processes.

• Medium Risk: UiPath $PATH ( 0.0% ) – A leader in robotic process automation, UiPath’s solutions are crucial in the AI hiring revolution.

• High Risk: HireVue – With AI-based video interviewing platforms on the rise, this startup is well-positioned to grow—if it can overcome regulatory concerns.

• Wildcard: Workday $WDAY ( ▼ 0.65% ) – While HR tech is the primary focus, Workday’s AI-based tools for talent management could disrupt traditional recruitment models.

A Fall in Hamptons Rentals: Is the Market Cooling or Just Taking a Breath?

Story The cost of renting a home in the Hamptons has dropped 30% from last year, sparking speculation about whether this is a sign of a cooling luxury housing market or just a temporary blip. High-end rental properties are still in demand, but the price drop could indicate a shift in consumer spending as economic uncertainty grows.

What this means The drop in rental prices signals that even the most coveted real estate markets are feeling the pressure of higher interest rates and inflationary concerns. Whether this trend is temporary or a sign of a larger slowdown remains to be seen.

Point of interest Real estate moguls and luxury rental companies will be watching closely to see if this price correction continues or if it's just a temporary dip.

Stock picks

• Low Risk: American Tower $AMT ( ▲ 0.46% ) – While not directly linked to housing, their infrastructure plays a major role in the connectivity of luxury properties and services.

• Medium Risk: Zillow Group $Z ( ▲ 1.59% ) – With a massive foothold in the housing market, Zillow’s insights can offer a window into broader trends.

• High Risk: Redfin $RDFN ( ▼ 2.29% ) – Housing market volatility could cause challenges, but Redfin’s innovation in real estate tech positions it for long-term growth.

• Wildcard: Opendoor $OPEN ( ▲ 6.25% ) – With a focus on buying and selling homes, Opendoor’s model might be impacted by shifting market dynamics.

M&A / Investments

1. Soul Patts and Brickworks Merger
   Australian investment manager Soul Patts and building-products maker Brickworks have agreed to merge into a single $9B entity, marking a significant consolidation in the Australian investment and building sectors.

2. Carlyle and Sherwin-Williams’ Joint Bid for BASF Coatings Unit
   Carlyle and paint giant Sherwin-Williams are considering a joint bid for BASF's $6.8B coatings unit. Other investors like Blackstone and Bain Capital are also eyeing the deal, indicating strong competition in the global chemicals market.

3. EOG Resources Acquires Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6B
   Shale producer EOG Resources agreed to acquire Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6B, signaling continued consolidation in the energy sector, particularly in oil and gas production.

4. Ascension Health in Talks to Acquire AmSurg for ~$3.9B
   Ascension Health is in advanced talks to acquire ambulatory surgery company AmSurg for ~$3.9B, strengthening its position in the U.S. healthcare system.

5. Taylor Swift Re-acquires Her First Six Albums for $360M
   In a landmark deal, Taylor Swift re-acquired the rights to her first six albums from PE firm Shamrock Capital for $360M, ending a long-standing dispute and giving her full control over her music catalog.

VC Deals

1. Abridge AI Raises $300M at $5.3B Valuation
   Abridge AI, which uses AI to transcribe medical conversations, raised $300M at a $5.3B valuation in a funding round led by a16z. This funding is set to accelerate its growth in the healthcare tech space.

2. Perplexity AI in Talks to Raise Investment from Samsung
   AI startup Perplexity is in discussions to secure a strategic investment from Samsung, reflecting growing interest in AI-driven solutions across industries.

3. Uplinq Raises $10M Series A
   Uplinq, an AI-driven bookkeeping and tax solutions startup, secured $10M in Series A funding led by Next Coast Ventures. The funding will support its growth in the fintech sector.

4. Firefly Aerospace Raises $50M
   Space startup Firefly Aerospace raised $50M from Northrop Grumman, bolstering its push to advance space exploration and satellite deployment capabilities.

5. Assisterr Raises $2.7M at $75M Valuation
   Assisterr, a platform allowing users to create and monetize AI agents without coding, raised $2.7M at a $75M valuation, supported by Google for Startups and others.

Wrapping up

As we wrap up this week’s edition, keep Sir John Templeton’s words in mind. The market is as predictable as a cat on a hot tin roof—except, of course, when it’s pretending to be something it’s not. So, keep your eyes on the fundamentals, and don’t fall for the siren call of this time being different. After all, if you’re going to dance with the market, best not to get too attached to the beat. And remember, the only thing that’s really different in the market is the next bubble.

Until next time,
The Briefcase Team 💼

P.S. Turn your “almost there” portfolio into a pro-level powerhouse.
Briefcase beats the S&P 500 by over 50%. Check it out below ⬇️