💼 Animal Farm: Bulls Roar, Bears Snore

This week, the markets feel like a George Orwell novel—dystopian, unpredictable, and eerily prescient. Nvidia battles Wall Street’s skepticism, Trump’s tariffs loom like Big Brother, and Meta rewrites the AI narrative. Like Orwell’s world, the markets are a mix of truth, propaganda, and doublethink. So, pour your Victory Coffee (iykyk) and remember, some portfolios are more equal than others.

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four.”
—George Orwell (and also us, when calculating portfolio returns).

Zuck Wants a Seat at the AI Table

Story Meta is launching a standalone AI app in Q2, positioning it as a direct competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini. The app will offer a more immersive experience beyond Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, and Meta is even testing a paid subscription model. With nearly 600 million monthly active users, Meta AI is already massive, but engagement has been hard to measure. A dedicated app could change that—and maybe even your life.

What This Means Meta is serious about AI, and Zuckerberg wants to dominate the chatbot space. The move could solidify Meta’s position in the AI race, but it also raises questions about privacy and competition.

Point of Interest Zuck’s vision includes integrating AI across Meta’s ecosystem, from digital assistants to smart glasses. Because who doesn’t want Mark Zuckerberg whispering in their ear all day?

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Meta (META) – Still the king of social media (and now AI).

• Medium Risk: Alphabet (GOOGL) – Google’s Gemini won’t go down without a fight.

• High Risk: OpenAI (Private) – The dark horse in the AI race.

• Wildcard: Snap (SNAP) – Because someone has to try to keep up.

Tariffs Jolt Markets

Story U.S. equity markets closed lower this week as Trump confirmed a 10% tariff hike on Chinese imports and new levies on Canada and Mexico. The move has stoked fears of economic fallout, even as Q4 GDP held steady at 2.3%. Bond yields edged up, reflecting cautious optimism, but the markets remain on edge.

What This Means Trade tensions are back, and they’re uglier than ever. The tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and inflate costs, but they might also boost domestic industries.

Point of Interest Initial jobless claims rose to 242,000, above expectations but still historically low. The labor market remains resilient—for now.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Walmart (WMT) – Because tariffs mean more domestic shopping.

• Medium Risk: Caterpillar (CAT) – Infrastructure plays could benefit.

• High Risk: Tesla (TSLA) – Tariffs could hit EV supply chains hard.

• Wildcard: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – For the brave (or foolish).

Beat Stripe Hits $91.5 Billion Valuation

Story Stripe processed $91.5 billion valuation, but don’t expect an IPO anytime soon. The fintech giant is running another tender sale, letting insiders cash out while keeping Wall Street at arm’s length. Stripe processed $1.4 trillion in payments in 2024, a 38% jump year-over-year, and turned a profit.

What This Means Stripe is thriving without Wall Street’s help, and its focus on high-margin software products and stablecoins could keep it ahead of the fintech pack.

Point of Interest Stripe’s latest share buyback values the company at nearly 41% higher than last year. Not bad for a company that’s allergic to IPOs.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Visa (V) – The OG of payments.

• Medium Risk: Square (SQ) – Stripe’s scrappy little sibling.

• High Risk: Klarna (Private) – The IPO-bound fintech.

• Wildcard: Coinbase (COIN) – Because crypto is always a wildcard.

Nvidia Plunges Despite Earnings Beat

Story Nvidia crushed earnings yet again, but the stock plunged 8.5%, knocking it out of the 3 trillion club. The company reported 3 trillion club. The company reported 39.33 billion in revenue, beating estimates, but investors are worried about cooling growth and rising competition.

What This Means Nvidia’s dominance in AI hardware is undeniable, but even the king of chips isn’t immune to market jitters.

Point of Interest Nvidia’s stock barely budged after the earnings beat. At this point, Wall Street might need Nvidia to invent a chip that prints money before they get excited.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Nvidia (NVDA) – Still the king of AI.

• Medium Risk: AMD (AMD) – Nvidia’s scrappy little sibling.

• High Risk: DeepSeek (Private) – The dark horse in the AI race.

• Wildcard: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – Because someone has to build the servers.

Dell Beats Earnings on AI Server Demand

Story Dell missed Q4 revenue estimates but beat on earnings, thanks to strong demand for its AI servers. The company forecast a strong FY outlook, highlighting the growing importance of AI in its business model. While revenue dipped slightly, Dell’s focus on AI infrastructure is paying off.

What This Means Dell is carving out a niche in the AI hardware space, and its strong earnings suggest it’s on the right track. The company’s focus on AI servers could position it as a key player in the AI boom.

Point of Interest Dell’s AI server business is booming, but the company still faces stiff competition from the likes of HPE and Super Micro Computer.

Stock Picks

• Low Risk: Dell (DELL) – The AI server whisperer.

• Medium Risk: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Dell’s biggest rival.

• High Risk: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – The dark horse in the AI server race.

• Wildcard: NVIDIA (NVDA) – Because AI servers need chips.

Roundup: The Week’s Other Headlines

While the big stories grabbed the spotlight, here’s a quick rundown of the other notable happenings this week:

1. PCE Inflation Cools Slightly

   • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is still high, but not as high as before. Core PCE is expected to hit 2.6%, a tiny dip from December’s 2.7%.

2. Bitcoin Tumbles to 90-Day Low

   • Crypto investors are heading back to McDonald’s as Bitcoin drops to its lowest level in three months. The crypto market cap is down $800 billion YTD.

3. Rolls-Royce Holdings Surges 14% After Earnings Beat

   • The automaker is cruising after beating earnings. Strong demand for luxury vehicles and cost-cutting measures are paying off.

4. Meta in Talks to Raise $35 Billion for Data Centers

   • Apollo and KKR are leading the charge as Meta looks to fund its AI ambitions. The move underscores Meta’s commitment to AI and its growing infrastructure needs.

5. HP Warns on Q2 Profits Due to Tariffs

   • Rising component costs and Trump’s new China tariffs are squeezing margins. HP now expects earnings of 0.75to0.75to0.85 per share, missing estimates.

Wrapping up

And so, we close this week’s chapter with Orwellian clarity. The markets, like 1984, are where truth is slippery, power is absolute, and change is constant. Nvidia fights on, Trump’s tariffs endure, and Meta rewrites the rules.

As Orwell wrote, “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” In the markets, clarity is our weapon. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and remember: even in a dystopia, there’s hope—and maybe a well-timed stock pick.

Until next week,
The Briefcase Team 💼

Premium Access